Still haunted by memories of the 2020 toilet paper panic, many Americans are now asking: Is it time to start stockpiling again?
A wave of concern has been spreading across U.S. social media — but this time, the cause isn’t a global pandemic. It’s tariffs.
The latest alarm comes from Suzano S.A., the world’s largest pulp exporter based in Brazil. The company warned that new U.S. tariffs on imported pulp could threaten the “raw-material lifeline” of toilet paper production. If these trade tensions escalate, they could ripple through the supply chain — from factories to store shelves — and reignite fears of another shortage.
For now, American supermarkets remain well-stocked. But industry insiders say the situation beneath the surface is far from calm. Suzano’s latest figures show its pulp exports to the U.S. dropped 20% year-over-year in April, and experts believe that’s only the beginning. As the tariff landscape shifts, analysts caution that consumer psychology could once again play a decisive role.
Once people start “preventive stockpiling,” the familiar 2020 scene — empty shelves, frantic shoppers, and delivery trucks in short supply — could return.
Tariff Chain Reaction: Soaring Pulp Costs and a Strained Supply Chain
At the heart of the looming toilet paper crisis is a familiar economic pattern — one triggered by the Trump administration’s layered trade policies. The result has been a ripple effect that many economists describe as a “tariff hike → cost surge → supply squeeze” chain reaction.
Tariffs Stacking Up: Pulp Imports Take a Double Hit
Brazil, one of the world’s largest pulp producers, now faces a 10% export tariff on shipments to the United States. Suzano S.A., Brazil’s pulp giant and a key supplier of bleached hardwood pulp — the essential ingredient for most U.S. toilet paper — has been directly impacted.
But Brazil isn’t alone. The U.S. has also turned its tariff attention northward, planning to raise duties on Canadian lumber and pulp products to 27%, on top of the existing 25% — pushing total rates above 50%.
That matters more than most consumers realize. The U.S. imports roughly 2 million tons of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp from Canada each year, accounting for about 30% of the nation’s toilet paper raw materials. This specific grade of pulp, prized for its softness and strength, has been a staple for American brands for over three decades — and it can’t be easily replaced by domestic alternatives.
Rising Costs Ripple Through Markets
Tariffs don’t just add red tape — they raise prices across the board. As Suzano’s CEO, João Alberto de Abreu, bluntly stated, “We have no choice but to pass on the additional tariff costs to U.S. buyers.”
The impact has already hit financial markets. Suzano’s shares slid 4.3% on the São Paulo Stock Exchange, marking their lowest level since June. Meanwhile, uncertainty around future pricing has pushed the entire industry into what Suzano’s Executive VP Leonardo Grimaldi called a “price discovery phase.” Buyers and sellers alike are holding their breath, unsure how these tariffs will shape production plans or profit margins.
Consumer Prices Already on the Move
For everyday Americans, the warning signs are already on the shelves. Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble has announced that prices for about a quarter of its U.S. products — including household staples like toilet paper — will rise by an average of 2.5% starting August 2025.
And that’s likely just the beginning. As pulp costs continue to climb, more manufacturers may follow suit, passing the burden down the supply chain. Ultimately, the ones footing the bill for tariff politics won’t be corporations — but ordinary American households.
From Raw Material to Bathroom Roll: How Close Is This Crisis to the Everyday Consumer?
At first glance, a “pulp shortage” might sound like a problem for manufacturers — not something that could affect your next trip to the grocery store. But the reality is that the U.S. toilet paper supply chain is surprisingly fragile, and small disruptions can ripple quickly from forest to factory to household.
A Fragile Supply Chain Built on “Just-in-Time”
The American toilet paper industry has long operated under a just-in-time production model — meaning most factories produce and ship goods only when needed, with little inventory sitting idle. Supermarkets typically hold enough stock for just two to three weeks of sales.
So when pulp shipments from Brazil or Canada slow down, the entire chain feels the shock almost immediately. A brief hiccup at the source can halt factory output and empty store shelves within days — a scenario eerily reminiscent of 2020.
Old Habits Die Hard: The Psychology of Panic Buying
The trauma of the 2020 toilet paper frenzy hasn’t completely faded. Even a hint of shortage is enough to set off a wave of preventive stockpiling.
As one industry analyst put it: “The supply chain is already stretched thin — it doesn’t take much for small-scale panic buying to spiral into a full-blown shortage.”
When consumers start hoarding, scarcity becomes self-fulfilling: the more people grab, the faster supplies vanish, fueling even more fear-driven buying.
Vulnerable Groups Feel the Pain First
For low-income families, seniors, and others living paycheck to paycheck, the effects of panic buying can hit especially hard. These households often can’t afford to stock up in advance, leaving them scrambling once shelves are bare.
During the pandemic, this imbalance led to some extreme measures — reports surfaced of people resorting to improvised alternatives like old rags or paper towels, clogging sewage systems in the process. Experts warn that a renewed shortage could once again expose these same vulnerabilities.
What Should Ordinary People Do?
While it’s understandable to feel uneasy about potential shortages, panic buying is never the right answer — and often makes things worse. A few sensible steps can go a long way in avoiding unnecessary stress and keeping supplies available for everyone.
1. Don’t Fall for Panic Buying
Right now, store shelves are still well-stocked. Buying more than you need not only strains supply chains but can also lead to wasted money and storage space. Remember: excessive stockpiling was one of the biggest reasons shelves went empty so quickly back in 2020.
2. Keep an Eye on Prices
If you start noticing your go-to brand creeping up in price, that’s your cue to plan ahead — but not to hoard. Buying a one- to two-month supply is reasonable and helps you avoid paying more later if prices spike again.
3. Know Your Alternatives
It never hurts to have a few backup options. A small stash of flushable wet wipes or biodegradable paper towels can come in handy — just make sure they’re safe for plumbing. Never flush products that aren’t water-soluble, as they can clog pipes and damage sewage systems.
4. Stay Informed
Trade and tariff policies can shift quickly, and misinformation spreads even faster. Rely on reputable news outlets or official government updates to track developments, and be cautious about unverified social media claims that might trigger unnecessary panic.
5. Consider Reducing Paper Dependence
If the idea of another toilet-paper scramble makes you nervous, it might be time to modernize your bathroom. For around $100–$200, you can easily retrofit your existing toilet with a bidet attachment, drastically cutting your paper use.
For homeowners planning a remodel, investing in a smart toilet can offer long-term peace of mind — solving not just today’s anxiety, but tomorrow’s roll worries once and for all.
Ending
From high-tech semiconductors to something as mundane as a roll of toilet paper, trade disputes are quietly shaping the everyday lives of Americans. The Trump administration’s tariff policies may have their political logic, but it’s ordinary households — not policymakers — who ultimately shoulder the cost. Higher prices at checkout counters, uncertainty for retailers, and even potential job losses all trace back to these global economic tremors.
So, could the U.S. really face another toilet paper shortage? That depends on two things: whether tariff policies are adjusted in time, and whether consumers can keep calm instead of panic buying.
Regardless of how events unfold, this moment already serves as a powerful reminder — no trade strategy should turn essential goods into casualties of politics.
After all, ensuring that every American can reach for a roll of toilet paper without worry isn’t just a matter of convenience — it’s a small but telling measure of economic stability and quality of life.
What do you think — could America really relive the great toilet paper panic of 2020?
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
Q1: How many times has the U.S. experienced toilet paper shortages?
A: There have been three major instances:
- 1973: The “Johnny Carson Panic”
- 2020: Shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic
- 2025: Supply tensions caused by tariffs and trade conflicts under the Trump administration
Q2: Why does toilet paper keep running short in the U.S.?
A: The main reasons are:
- Reliance on imported raw materials: While most toilet paper is produced domestically, key raw materials like pulp are imported.
- Panic-driven stockpiling: Once people start buying in bulk “just in case,” social media amplifies the perception of scarcity, causing a chain reaction.
Q3: Is all U.S. toilet paper imported?
A: No. Approximately 85% of toilet paper is manufactured in the U.S., but the raw materials it depends on mainly come from overseas.
Q4: Will a port strike affect toilet paper supply?
A: Generally, no. The U.S. market is relatively stable, and typical labor disputes rarely disrupt the supply of toilet paper or most other supermarket goods.
Q5: Why do Americans panic over toilet paper shortages?
A: Toilet paper is a daily essential. Empty shelves are visually striking, and social media amplifies the perception of scarcity, triggering nationwide panic buying.
Q6: What can I do if I run out of toilet paper?
A: If toilet paper is unavailable, you can temporarily use tissues, paper towels, or napkins as a substitute.
- Important: Do not flush these alternatives down the toilet, as they can cause blockages.
